The countdown begins in the Irish general election
7 mins read

The countdown begins in the Irish general election

PA Media A woman puts a white ballot into a gray ballot box.PA Media

Counting begins across Ireland at 09.00 local time

Exit polls in the Irish election suggest a close contest between the three major parties.

Figures from Friday’s exit poll show Sinn Féin slightly ahead of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the first-place vote.

Early reports predict that some ministers may struggle to keep their seats.

A record 174 Teachtaí Dála (TD) will be elected, up from 160 in 2020 following a constituency shake-up.

  • You can follow live results here.

There are now 43 Dáil constituencies (up from 39 in 2020) which will elect between three and five TDs each.

One seat in the Dáil goes to the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), so 88 TDs are the number required for an overall majority.

More than 680 candidates competed for the remaining 173 seats.

The counting of votes at more than 40 centers across the republic began at 09:00 local time, and the first results are expected later in the afternoon.

Reuters Mary Lou McDonald casts her vote. She has shoulder-length brown hair and wears an orange and white scarf.Reuters

Sinn Féin is on course to win the referendum for the second general election in a row

Sinn Féin has canvassed well so far but less clear is how it will use that support to get into government.

Judging by the early numbers, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are best placed to return to the government benches and between them could end up with between 75 and 80 just short of the 88 needed to secure a majority.

Both parties have it rules out sharing power with Sinn Féin.

That leaves Mary Lou McDonald considering other options including the possibility of a minority government with other left-leaning parties and some independent TDs.

New trends

BBC News NI’s Aoife Moore in Dublin

Early reports predict an upset for some ministers.

While not all drawers are open, trends are beginning to emerge.

In Wicklow, which has four seats, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is in fifth place.

Health had been a hot topic in the election campaign as waiting lists continue to rise.

Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Simon Harris is in the same constituency and leads the way in early speeches.

In Dublin Midwest, the Minister for Children, the Green Party’s Roderic O’Gorman, is struggling at this early stage, currently in sixth place.

O’Gorman had been put in the unenviable position of being responsible for the integration and housing of asylum seekers – something the current government has struggled to get to grips with amid a far-right disinformation campaign and a lack of available beds for refugees.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is likely to take first place in the Dublin Central constituency.

Social Democrat Gary Gannon and Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe also look safe in their seats.

The final seat looks likely to be a close race between Labor senator Marie Sherlock and independent candidate Gerard Hutch.

Hutch, also known on The Monk, acquitted of murdering a man during a boxing weigh-in at a Dublin hotel in 2016.

Earlier this month he was released on bail from custody in Spain.

Hutch was one of nine people arrested in Spain as part of a joint international investigation between the Garda National Bureau of Criminal Investigation and the Guardia Civil into money laundering by the Hutch Organized Crime Group.

What did Friday’s exit poll say?

An exit poll graphic showing a picture of Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald on 21.1%; Simon Harris of Fine Gael on 21.0% and Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil on 19.5%

The exit poll shows a three-way race between the largest parties

The figures, which were published at 10pm local time, showed Sinn Féin on 21.1% of the first-preference vote, with Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil sitting third on 19.5%.

It also proposed that 20% of the second preference votes go to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin on 17%.

The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and was based on 5,018 interviews completed outside polling stations.

It has a margin of error of 1.4%.

Analysis by Enda McClafferty, BBC News NI political editor

If the poll is correct, Sinn Féin is on course to win the referendum for the second general election in a row.

But just like 2020, it has no clear path to power.

Outgoing coalition partners Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are well placed to have the numbers needed to return to the government benches with the support of a minor party.

If the polls are correct, the pair could return with between 75 and 80 seats, which will leave them just short of the 88 needed for an overall majority.

Sinn Féin hopes it performs better than the survey suggests, as it did in 2020.

But that may not be enough to form the coalition of left-leaning parties excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

How the votes are to be counted

The Republic of Ireland elects its government using a system of proportional representation called the only transferable voice.

Voters rank the candidates in their constituency in order of preference and the candidates must reach a certain number of votes to be elected.

The counting of the ballots takes place in several rounds.

Each vote is initially credited to the first choice.

PA Media A woman holds a pug as she passes a yellow PA Media

Once a candidate has received the required number of votes, they are elected and any remaining ballots marked with them as first choice are transferred to the other ranked preferences.

Ballot papers continue to be transferred to the next usable preference until all seats in the constituency are filled with candidates who have achieved the quota.

Once all the seats are filled, the next phase in the process begins, the task of forming a new government.

When will the results be known?

Because of the voting system, counting can sometimes take several days, and forming a government can take even longer.

It took four months after the last general election in 2020 for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party to reach an agreement to form a government.

Sinn Féin became the leading opposition party, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both already ruled them out as potential coalition partners.

The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is on 18 December, but it is unlikely that coalition talks will have concluded by then.

A government will officially be formed when the Dáil approves a vote to install a new Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), but this is not expected to happen before 2025.