Indian states are finally experiencing signs of the arrival of winter, marked by noticeable weather changes across different regions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that northern parts of the country including Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi have started witnessing foggy mornings. Parallel to this, a gradual decrease in maximum and minimum temperatures has been observed.

Amid the delayed winter, the IMD has forecast neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions to prevail over the equatorial Pacific, with temperatures below mean in the eastern equatorial region. The latest models also suggest the possibility of La Niña appears in the post-monsoon season.

La Niña, which means “Little Girl” in Spanish, is usually associated with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and particularly severe winters. It usually intensifies between October and February, which can lead to harsher winters and heavier rainfall, which can affect agriculture, especially in regions dependent on winter crops.

However, La Niña is expected to be remarkably weak this time around. “Due to climate change, normal temperatures are already elevated, and the La Niña anomaly is not sustained,” explained OP Sreejith, director of climate monitoring at IMD. Its mild intensity may translate into a warmer-than-usual winter for India, especially in northern regions.

La Niña can only be officially confirmed if the Oceanic Niño Index consistently drops to at least -0.5°C, a condition that has yet to be met this year.

Forecasters, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), had predicted a more pronounced transition to La Niña by the middle of the year, but the predictions did not materialize. This “scary weather,” described in NOAA’s recent blog, reflects the challenges of predicting accurate ENSO patterns amid changing climate dynamics. According to private forecaster Skymet, borderline La Niña conditions could extend into early 2025, although ENSO-neutral conditions could re-emerge in the second quarter of next year.